Shmuel's Soapbox: American Idol Annex

Finale!

Here we go!

Coming into the vote last night (so, I suppose, in the previous week's vote), the finalists were separated by less than two percent.

The top 12, in prep school uniforms, perform "School's Out"... and are joined by Alice Cooper.

Kris Allen performs "The Truth."

Simon Cowell montage.

Siobhan and Aaron perform "How Deep Is Your Love"... and there's the Brothers Gibb joining them.

Michael performs "Takin' It To The Streets," joined by Michael McDonald.

Dane Cook performs "Simon Says," a song/monologue featuring "Simon's greatest insults." ("Simon, you have the honesty of Abe Lincoln, and the charm of the guy who shot him.") He's joined onstage by Renaldo Lapuz, Ian Bernardo, and (I assume) a bunch of other notorious losers.

The female finalists perform "Beautiful," which means Xtina must be in the wings. They move on to "Fighter," and... yup, here she is, joining them for the last chorus and then performing "You Lost Me."

...say this for the producers. "Idol Gives Back" sucked, but the finale remains a must-see two-hour variety show.

Ricky Gervais offers a farewell message for Simon.

The male finalists perform "I Can't Go for That" and "Maneater." (Hall & Oates? Really? Really.) Hall & Oates perform "You Make My Dreams Come True."

Crystal performs the first verse and chorus of "Ironic," then introduces Alanis for a duet on "You Oughta Know." ("Would she go down with you to the theatre?" HA!)

Carrie Underwood performs "Undo It" (which is pretty good, and which she cowrote with Kara.)

Kris presents a "big surprise" for Lee and Crystal. They each get a Ford Fiesta with the designs they made at the start of the season. Their failed attempts to look surprised (and general lack of enthusiasm) suggests that yes, they've seen this show before.

Ford video: "My Wish," using clips from the previous videos.

Casey performs "Every Rose Has Its Thorn," joined by Bret Michaels.

Some of the auditions will be on MySpace next season.

Lee performs a medley with Chicago. (The band, that is. Not the entire city.) "Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?" "If You Leave Me Now," and "25 or 6 to 4."

And another Simon montage.

And here we go. General Larry Platt and an entire dance troupe with "Pants on the Ground." Though this version doesn't actually seem to have a verse, just repeating a line of the-- Oh. My. God. He's joined by William Hung. (And the backup dancers have their pants on the ground, which is what this song is supposed to be against. Oops.)

Ooh. Here comes Paula! We start with Paula reminiscing. ("After eight years of sitting between two men who had bigger boobs than me, I had enough.") And here she is live, to a standing ovation. To Ryan: "You're so cute, and I want my lip gloss back." To Simon: "There's a baby backstage with Simon's haircut, and, sweetheart, it's your turn to feed him."

The show's ground to a halt for her speech, and I am totally fine with that. She's really left a void in the show, and she never got a proper sendoff.

Another Simon montage, with "My Way" in the background.

Parade of Idols! Kelly Clarkson, Ruben Studdard, Fantasia Burrino, Carrie Underwood, Jordin Sparks, Taylor Hicks, and Kris Allen perform "Together We Are One," joined by-- wow. Too many other past finalists to name, or even count. (What happened to David Cook?)

Paula escorts Simon to the stage. He makes a short speech of his own, thanking everyone from the contestants to the production crew to the viewers at home. "When everyone asks... who's gonna be the next judge. The truth is, you guys have been the judge of this show, and you've done an incredible job over the years."

The finalists sing the first verse of "Again" and are joined by Janet Jackson, who segues into "Nothing." And then shifts to a laser light show and a whole lot of backup dancers performing "Nasty."

Oh, right, this is a results show. Crystal and Lee montage!

The final two sing "With A Little Help From My Friends," and are joined by Joe Cocker. (If you haven't seen this subtitled version of the Woodstock performance, you need to. Trust me.)

Pool-wise, everything is hinging on the final results this year. The top three are Suzanne, Shmuel, Shlomo if Lee wins; Pam, Mo, Lisa if Crystal does. (And that only because Mo Pie decided to forgo a purely strategic approach at the last minute.)

And here's some guy with an envelope containing the certified results. Dim the lights!

After the nationwide vote... the winner... of American Idol 2010... is... Lee!

The big screen in the center helpfully flashes "LEE WINS!" in large friendly letters.

Lee appears to be stunned. And after saying that he's so, so happy, it's on to his performance of "Beautiful Day" amid a shower of sparks, and lasers, and streamers, and confetti. (They wisely decided to skip the superfluous trophy this year.)

And this year's pool winner is Suzanne! Though she won't know it for two hours, due to the time zone thing. Congrats!

Final pool standings:

Suzanne: 25
Shmuel: 22.5
Shlomo: 20.25
Brieanne: 19.25
Mo Pie: 19.25
Pam: 18.75
Jesse: 18.25
TeKay: 18.25
Lisa: 16.25

(Honestly, Brieanne would likely be in second place if not for the flooding.)

A few words before the finale

(Well, I started typing this before the finale, and finished it during the first few commercial breaks.)

The past year has seen a devastating earthquake in Haiti, flooding in Rhode Island and Tennessee, an oil drilling disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, and the most boring season of American Idol in its nine-year history.

How have things come to this pass? I'm not entirely certain, but that's not going to keep me from rambling about my pet theories.

First, a few words on things the Idol producers got right over the years.

In the very first season of Idol, the judges were focused on finding specifically a pop idol, which included somebody who looked like a pop idol. One of the would-be finalists in that season was explicitly cut because -- although she could sing better than most -- she was on the heavier side.

They started backing off this in Season Two. None of that season's top three -- Kimberley Locke, Clay Aiken, Ruben Studdard -- would have been allowed to the semifinals in the first season, based strictly on looks. I think it's to the credit of the producers and judges that they recognized that they'd been focused much too narrowly the first time around, progressively widening the pool of people they'd consider over the years.

They also chose wisely in choosing the initial team of judges. Paula Abdul provided empathy, Simon Cowell provided criticism, and Randy... well, he was the filler in the sandwich, but that's not a bad thing. They formed a sometimes dysfunctional family, but they worked well together for seven seasons.

Ryan Seacrest may have turned out to be the biggest success story of all, and I'm being entirely serious. Ryan is faced with any number of challenges to keep the show running smoothly. If the judges are getting too silly, he has to pull it back to something resembling dignity; if it gets too portentous, he tends to tack to something that reminds us that this is -- at the end of the day -- a glorified talent show. He needs to try to build suspense when there isn't much. He needs to keep the pacing going. He's the ringmaster in a three-ring circus where the acts change every week. Does he get stuff wrong at times? Sure. But on the whole, the measure of his success is that he takes this insanely complex and challenging job and makes it look like any idiot could do it.

So where did they go wrong?

For one thing, they hired Kara.

I don't claim to have an inside line on the producers' thinking, but it looks like Kara was added to the mix partly to shake things up, but perhaps mostly because the American public was picking a distressing number of unmarketable Idols. (Taylor Hicks, anyone?) She's the corporate member of the team. And one problem is that she doesn't even have the sense to hide it. She's the member of the team most likely to talk about whether a given contestant fits into a pigeonhole -- which is a good thing from her standpoint. Predictability, marketability, being easily labeled... these are the virtues in Kara-world. And it completely flies in the face of the show's foundational myth, that America can choose people who wouldn't have made it through the conventional corporate machine.

Worse, she's taken Randy with her. Whether she's awoken the producer side of him, or whether he was afraid for his job last year and decided to step up his game, the upshot is that he's gone from being bland but an okay swing vote to being a secondary member of the Axis of Corporate Evil.

One last note on Kara. Her takeaway lesson from last season's Bikini Girl showdown in the finale was as follows: "It probably saved my job... It was a defining moment. Like, 'She's serious and industry, but also as kooky as everyone else on this panel.'" This explains a lot about her attempts to channel Paula this season.

Next factor: they lost Paula. It's hard to overstate this one; she's been missed terribly all season long. There's nobody left on the panel providing empathy. Ellen's just there to provide one-liners; Kara doesn't actually have a soul. Nobody's there to counterbalance Simon, and Simon's actually had to be nicer as a result, making him less effective as well.

Ellen... I can't get too worked up about her, except insofar as she represents a missed opportunity. She brings nothing to the table, but she's not actively hurting the show.

Then there's the Judge's Save. There's nothing good to say about this, either. It's a gimmick that gets in the way of the show's major mechanic in which the people choose.

And now Simon's leaving. Goodness knows who they're going to replace him with, but unless they purge the entire panel and start from scratch, I don't think they have a prayer.

With that said, two other factors seem worth mentioning.

One is that, dude, we've been watching this for nine seasons. There's not much that can happen that we haven't already seen. Lee's ascent would be more interesting if Kris hadn't done the same thing last year. Every development gets compared to years past; "this year's Sanjaya" has replaced "this year's McKibbin." The other week, an article I was reading (I forget where) casually compared Kara's seeming crush on Casey with Simon's on Christina Christian in season one, taking for granted that people would remember her. And we do. And perhaps that makes us jaded.

The other is that while I still consider it a virtue that they moved away from the initial focus on pop idols, too much of any good is bad, and it's possible that they've gone much too far. Marc Hirsh makes a persuasive case that Idol has become too much about niche contestants warping every theme into their own niches... and in a year in which only two out of six contestants sounded like they were even trying to do something resembling country music on Shania Twain week, it's hard to argue with this. What we've gained in diversity, we seem to have lost in versatility.

Are these the only factors? Probably not. But they seem to account for a lot.

Next questions: will I still be watching next year, without Paula and Simon in a tenth season? Will anybody else? Will X-Factor be any better? (And Simon manage to get Paula to join him on his new show?) Honestly, I don't know.

Ah well. On to the finale.

Top 2: Performances

Final Two!

Three rounds: contestant's choice from songs performed earlier this season; Simon Fuller's choice; and the single.

Crystal won the coin toss last week, and has sensibly opted to go second.

Lee, "The Boxer"
S'okay.

Crystal, "Me and Bobby McGee"
Much better, and also SUCH a safe choice. But it's been that sort of season.

Round 1 goes to Crystal.

Lee, "Everybody Hurts"
Yeah, okay. Is this season over yet?

When a Ford Fiesta commercial is the highlight of the show, something's not right.

Crystal, "Black Velvet"
It being a safe bet that the single will be crap, this probably should have been the night's best performance. But the arrangement sucked, she was shaky, and that attempted wail at the end just went to show that she should leave that to Siobhan.

Round 2... I'm going to give a slight edge to Lee, as his performance didn't have any actual painful moments, but neither was finale-worthy.

Lee, "Beautiful Day":
Y'know, as Idol singles go, this actually isn't bad.

...turns out that this is because it's a U2 song.

Crystal, "Up to the Mountain (MLK Song)" (Patty Griffin):
S'okay.

Final round goes to... oh, who cares. For the first time all season, I'm not even gonna bother voting.

Will Young (the first Pop Idol from the original U.K. show) sings "Leave Right Now" over a montage of the season.

So, hey, what do you think we're in for tomorrow night? General Larry Platt seems a safe bet. Anything else? (Perchance, Paula?)

Top 3: Results

Lee Dewyze was the highest-trending topic on Twitter last night. I'm thinking he's safe. And we're all assuming that Casey's going home tonight. But we have an hour-long results show to sit through, including a performance by a boy who's just been nominated for Best New Artist at the BET Awards... Justin Bieber.

(Next year, the typical performance show is expanding to 90 minutes, and the results show is shrinking to 30. Good call, I'd say.)

Over 47 million votes last night.

(Over on Twitter, Billboard points out that the total at this time last year -- Adam vs. Danny vs. Kris -- was just under 88 million. A bit of a drop.)

Apparently we're on a talk show: The View, with Ryan Seacrest and the Finalists. (It beats another group number.) The finalists babble about the perspective provided by visiting home last week, the challenges of the Idol process, and so on. Perhaps most notably, Casey admits that he never expected to get this far.

Randy thinks the finalists have all grown and benefited from the show and the judges' advice. Crystal and Lee agree; Casey has some reservations. Casey has the luxury of being able to be more candid, I think. (Plus he did get shafted by Randy & Kara's choice of song for him last night.)

Ten minutes successfully wasted! For a certain value of "successfully," anyway.

Ford music video: "Wild One (Real Wild Child)"

Footage of Casey's return to Texas.

Perez "Second Biggest Douche In The Universe" Hilton (behind John Edward, of course) apparently discovered Travis Garland, and is in the audience.

Travis performs "Believe." It's rough, dawg.

On to Crystal's Toledo homecoming.

And Lee's trip to Chicago.

Justin Bieber performs "You Smile" and "Baby."

I've gotta admit, not only is the kid better than Travis Garland, he's better than most of this season's guest artists. Not that either is saying much.

On to the results!

The first person in the finale is... Lee.

Joining Lee in the finals is... Crystal.

I was so sure of this that I'd already typed the following: TeKay picks up 6 points; Brie, Pam, Suzanne, and I get 4; Lisa, 3; Jesse and Mo, 2; Shlomo 1.

Casey is apparently unsurprised, and happy for the experience.

Swan song: "Daughters."

Top 3: Performances

On to the top three. Does anybody still care? And has the show really gone downhill, or am I just jaded after nine seasons? (Probably a combination of both.)

Also, my internal clock once again thinks I ought to be asleep by now. This is gonna be interesting.

Two songs apiece, one chosen by them, one chosen by the judges.

Contestants' Choice

Casey, "OK, It's Alright With Me" (Eric Hutchinson) [on acoustic guitar]
Pleasant. Nothing special. Not a good choice for the top 3.

Crystal, "Come to My Window" (Melissa Etheridge) [on acoustic guitar and harmonica]
Perfectly fine, but too much of a safe choice for her. Liked the harmonica, though!

They're zipping through these. I blame the four-judge format. (I'm guessing the homecoming footage will be in tomorrow night's show.)

Lee, "Simple Man" (Lynyrd Skynyrd) [on acoustic guitar]
First round goes to Lee. No contest.

Judges' Choice

Casey, "Daughters" (John Mayer), chosen by Randy and Kara [on electric guitar]
Yawn. (Bad song choice, you two.)

Simon's trying not to come out and say "Randy and Kara made a terrible song choice."

Crystal, "Maybe I'm Amazed" (Paul McCartney), chosen by Ellen [no guitar!]
...okay, I was skeptical about this one -- and this performance makes me miss Siobhan terribly -- but that was actually pretty good. And she does get Brownie points for ditching the guitar.

Lee, "Hallelujah" (Leonard Cohen), chosen by Simon [on acoustic guitar]
It is impossible to hear this song without comparing it to umpteen other versions.
This arrangement is a bit rushed and a bit overwrought... but given the time constraints, I think he actually pulled it off. (But his first song was better.)

By all rights, tonight's order should be Lee, Crystal, Casey. But we'll see!

Pandora's Box: Here Comes the Math

This is probably a bad idea.

That said, I got curious, and ran the numbers on the spreadsheet for all six of the possible outcomes left at this point. I realize that releasing the numbers might alter people's tactics... as is the case in quantum physics, observing something changes it.

Still, having worked all this out, I don't feel as if I can keep it all to myself with a clear conscience. So if you wanna see the scenarios for yourself, proceed to the rest of the entry!

The table above covers the points assigned in all weeks through the Top 4. Brieanne and Suzanne have the most to gain from Crystal coming in second. In the Lee/Crystal/Casey scenario, Suz has the most points, followed by Brie; in the rather more improbable Casey/Crystal/Lee scenario, the reverse is the case. In all other scenarios, Mo Pie currently has the lead.

With that said, all of these are close matches, and there are five more points to be assigned (three in the coming week, and two in the finale). There are still very plausible scenarios in which other people could win this. Just how they might is left as an exercise for the reader.

(Note: while I think I got this right, I will not rule out the possibility that I miscounted something along the way. You might wanna check the spreadsheet and do the math yourself.)

Top 4: Results!

Right, slept through the results show. Over to the DVR now...

Almost 37 million votes last night, the highest this season.

Fantasia performs "Bittersweet," the first single from her upcoming album.

Fantasia was Fantasia. (I've missed being able to type that! Ah, Season Three...)

Ford video: "Put the Messages in the Box"

Ryan reminds us that the top 3 get to spend a day with a hometown celebration. Montage of such things from previous years, when people in the contestants' hometowns still gave a damn about Idol.

(Yes, I'm getting jaded. There's even an outside chance I'll write a full entry about that...)

Casey... is safe.

Daughtry performs "September."

Mike... is asked to hang on.
Lee... is safe.

Bon Jovi performs "Superman Tonight."

On to Mike and Crystal.
The person in the Top 3 is... Crystal!

Mike is out.

Swan song: "Will You Be There."

Pam gets 5 points; Jesse picks up 4; Lisa and Mo Pie get 3; TeKay and I get 1.

(In the overall standings, defending champion Mo is in the lead, followed by Pam, followed by Jesse, followed by everyone else. See the spreadsheet for the full breakdown.)

Top 4: Performances

It's Movie Night, with Jamie Foxx!

I'm actually a bit surprised to be awake right now, given the current state of my internal clock. I expect this to affect my reactions.

Jamie provides a confusing explanation involving "contestant" and "artist" T-shirts. Ohhkaay.

Lee, "Kiss from a Rose" (on acoustic guitar)
Nice, pleasant... karaoke.

Ooh, they're doing individual performances + duets for the Top 4 again this year! Apparently the pairs are Lee + Crystal and Casey + Michael.

Michael, "Will You Be There"
Eh, s'okay.

Simon doesn't understand Free Willy.

Crystal and Lee, "Falling Slowly" (on acoustic guitars)
Peculiar setup, with them facing each other and ignoring the audience. Which makes it a bit hard to care, really. (Plus the camera circling around was disconcerting.)

(I mentioned I'm tired? I think I'm even gonna skip Glee and catch it on Hulu tomorrow.)

Casey, "Mrs. Robinson" (on... is that an eight-string uke? Nah. Mandolin? Well, some smallish stringed instrument with four double strings)
S'okay. Mellow.

Crystal, "I'm All Right" (on acoustic guitar)
Woot! So hey, at least tonight had one good performance.

Crystal's boyfriend has American flag pants this week.
(And an MVB t-shirt. Most Valuable Bowersox?)

Michael and Casey, "Have You Ever Really Loved a Woman" (on acoustic guitars)
Umm. Let's just move along, shall we?

Ellen: "Well, as a matter of fact, yes, I have loved a woman."

Should I still be awake, I'll be voting for Crystal, but sleep would be nice.

Jamie liked the performances. Woot.

Tomorrow night: Daughtry, Fantasia, and Bon Jovi.

Pool picks below!

Top 5: Results

Everybody who's submitted their picks this week thinks it's the end of the line for Casey. Are we right?

32 million votes last night.

The top 5 perform a Sinatra medley: "The Lady Is a Tramp," "It Was a Very Good Year" (the "when I was 17" verse, starting with Aaron. Cute.) "I've Got the World on a String," "Night and Day."

Next week, the theme is movie songs, and the mentor is Jamie Foxx.

Ford Music Video: "1, 2, 3, 4" (the Plain White T's song, not Coolio or Feist or whatever)

Montage of the finalists talking about Tuesdays, with clips of the process. (Including stand-ins for the judges at the dress rehearsal.)

Lee is... oh, they are so dragging this out. Anyway, he's safe.

Lady Gaga sings a few lines of "Bad Romance" before launching into "Alejandro" with a bunch of chorus boys. Nobody involved is wearing much. (Hey, remember when American Idol was family-friendly?)

Harry Fucking Connick, Jr., montage. Because this show hasn't been about him enough this week. (Seriously, I want to vote him off the show forever.)

He sings "And I Love Her." Feeling's not mutual.

Oh, good grief. Now he's making a speech.

And on to another group number, of Harry's songs, with the finalists accompanied by him on the piano. "We Are In Love," "Come By Me," "Hear Me in the Harmony."

Followed by a long anecdote from the douchebag about meeting Sinatra, and a plug for his upcoming tour.

And back to the results, at long last.

Crystal starts a group on the far side of the stage.
Michael starts a group on the near side of the stage.
Aaron joins Michael.
Casey joins Crystal.

Ryan asks Lee "if I said, 'pick the safe group,' would you do it?" He sensibly declines. He asks the audience; they yell stuff.

The bottom two is Michael and Aaron.

Apparently, Casey did have enough residual goodwill—and/or rabid tween fans—to survive this week's travesty. Which is probably for the best...

The person going home is... Aaron Kelly.

Swan song: "Fly Me to the Moon."

Shlomo picks up two points; Brie, Pam, Mo, Suzanne, and I pick up one apiece.

Top 5: Performances

Happy Katie Stevens Day!

I assume that's Harry Connick, Jr., saying "This... is American Idol."

Sinatra week!

Harry Connick, Jr., did the arrangements himself, rather than just offering advice. Huh.

And he's descending the staircase, he brought members of his band, and he'll be on stage playing music for every performance. Huh. I do not think I like this. I do not think I like this one bit.

Sinatra's daughters, Nancy and Tina, are in the audience, and brought Simon one of Ol' Blue Eyes' monogrammed handkerchiefs.

Aaron, "Fly Me to the Moon"
Aaron is totally too young for this song. That said, probably one of his better performances. (And I do like the hair and outfit.)

Kara thinks this won't be Aaron's last week. I so hope she's wrong. (Pending the other performances.)

Casey, "Blue Skies"
This look doesn't work as well on Casey. Nor does this song. I am afraid for the pretty one; this was terrible.

Crystal, "Summer Wind"
Whoa. That's one large back tattoo.
Anyway. That so was not Crystal's genre, but it wasn't terrible.

Crystal defends the arrangement. Need I say, bad idea?

Michael, "The Way You Look Tonight"
Looks good in the suit, and this was easily the most comfortable performance of the night so far. Nicely done.

Lee, "That's Life"
Three notes in, and I'm already ready to call this the best performance of the night. And by the end, I'm standing by that. No contest.

Lee is totally this season's Kris. Whether that means he'll win this season is still an open question, but I'm liking the odds now.

Pool picks go below!