Spoilers spoilers spoilers!
Bottom three: Phil, Haley, and... either Chris Sligh or Gina. We'll find out after Gwen Stefani performs.
Chris S. joins Phil and Haley.
Phil is safe!
Haley... is safe. Chris S. goes home.
Frito and Mo Pie pick up a point apiece!
My spoilerish take on the performances follows!
AMERICAN IDOL SEASON SIX -- TOP 10: Gwen Stefani
Gwen Stefani and groups that *inspired* her? Ohhhhkaaaaay.
LaKisha: "Last Dance"
E-nun-ci-ate, LaKisha. (Ironic, coming from me, but I'm not the one vying to be the American Idol.) Underwhelming.
This I foretell: LaKisha's not gonna make it to the final four. Melinda and Jordin are better, and don't leave her much room for keeping a fanbase. (Will this break the "this I foretell" jinx, or vindicate it further? Time will tell...)
Chris S.: "Every Little Thing She Does Is Magic"
S'okay. A bit shaky in spots. Simon might call it "karaoke," and he'll be right.
Gina: "I'll Stand By You"
Okay. One of her stronger performances, actually, but not enough to get her support from the sort of fans who like ballads, and I doubt it'll help her rocker cred... that said, if she's gonna have a shot at the title (and I still don't think she does), this would be exactly the sort of thing she needs to do, showing some versatility. So at least she's playing to win.
Sanjaya:
I took this opportunity to use the bathroom. I can't imagine I missed anything important, though I'll probably check the recording later.
Haley: "True Colors"
S'okay. Kinda boring.
Phil: "Every Breath You Take"
S'okay.
Melinda: "Heaven Knows"
So here's the thing. That Melinda's the best singer in this competition is hardly news. The question is whether she's going to keep being happy to be there while coasting along, or whether she's ever going to really fight for the top spot. 'Cause I don't think she's gonna make it unless she makes that transistion. If she's lucky, she'll hit the bottom three first; the question then will be how she reacts. Barring a change in her motivation, I see her making it to #3 at most. And then selling lots of CDs.
Blake: "Lovesong"
Not bad. Blake does have a shot at the title, and this helps showcase his versatility.
Jordin: "Hey Baby"
Let's make this official: I'm predicting a win by Jordin. She's got the voice, she's got the drive, she's got the youthful freshness. If she keeps this up—and I'll grant that this is a big "if"; she can't afford to rest on her laurels—it's a lock.
Chris R.: "Don't Speak"
Gutsy choice, I'll give him that. Got off to a very uninspiring start, but he came alive in the last third.
[recap snippets air]
...good grief. Sanjaya chose "Bathwater"?!
Anyway. I'm voting for Jordin.
Yadda yadda predict yadda.
OMG spoilers!
Bottom three... is not Sanjaya, Haley, and Gina. Huh.
Bottom two is Chris R. and Stephanie.
Okay, still in shock, but I can live with those.
Chris R. is staying; Stephanie goes home.
TeKay picks up a point, from last week's prediction.
Another week, another set of predictions. Put 'em here!
Spoilers spoilers spoilers ahoy!
Bottom three: Brandon, Phil... and either Sanjaya or Haley, who have to wait till after the break, Diana R's guest performance, and after the next break...
...to find out that Sanjaya's the last on the hot seat.
Phil, however, is safe. Down to Brandon and Sanjaya.
And Sanjaya is safe. Brandon's going home.
Frito and I pick up one point apiece.
I'm not sure whether I'll be watching this episode tonight or tomorrow, so I'm gonna go ahead and put this thread up now. Put your entries here!
Welcome to the fourth annual Shmuel's Soapbox American Idol Annex pool! Come one, come all! Tell your friends!
The rules are the same as last year's—in fact, I'm cutting and pasting wholesale—and they go as follows:
The upshot is that, every week, you're making x predictions, where x=the number of contestants remaining. For example, suppose that this week you were to rank the contestants as follows:
1. Blake
2. Brandon
3. Chris R.
4. Chris S.
5. Gina
6. Halie
7. Jordin
8. Lakisha
9. Melinda
10. Phil
11. Sanjaya
12. Stephanie
Putting aside the fact that there are better ways of making your predictions than going by alphabetical order, this would mean that if Stephanie were to leave the show this week, thus coming in at #12 overall, you would get a point for having predicted that. Similarly, if Sanjaya were to leave the show next week, thus coming in at #11 overall, you would get a point for that. This would similarly apply to the remaining 10 predictions, up to getting a point if Blake turned out to be the American Idol at the end of the season.
Next week, you'd get to do the same thing again, that time ranking the eleven remaining contestants to make eleven bets. And so on until the final week, with the final two predictions. This allows for a mixture of short-term and long-term planning: you can pick up points either way, and you can have a lot of points riding on the results of the final few weeks. In fact, 22 points could be at stake between the Idol and the first runner-up, with 11 weeks of predictions riding on each.
The winners of the first two pools did so in entirely different ways. Heather (2004) picked up a few points here and a few points there, hedging her bets so that just about any outcome toward the end would guarantee her a decent placement. Pam (2005) chose Carrie as the winner in the first week, and stuck with it all season long, leading to a massive payoff when she turned out to be right. (Had Bo won instead, she would have come in dead last. A similar gamble on LaToya led to my downfall the year before.) I take this as a sign that the rules work; I wanted that kind of flexibility, rather than boxing competitors in to one strategy.
As for last year... I won by a razor-thin margin, getting the bragging rights (I rock!). I still owe Pam and TeKay their mix CDs for coming in second (so, okay, I also suck), and Heather was one point behind them.
Further examples can be found in the explanation of the rules from two years ago, and you might find it helpful to go through the archives and see how it's been done before.
Good luck!