May 13, 2010
Pandora's Box: Here Comes the Math
This is probably a bad idea.
That said, I got curious, and ran the numbers on the spreadsheet for all six of the possible outcomes left at this point. I realize that releasing the numbers might alter people's tactics... as is the case in quantum physics, observing something changes it.
Still, having worked all this out, I don't feel as if I can keep it all to myself with a clear conscience. So if you wanna see the scenarios for yourself, proceed to the rest of the entry!
The table above covers the points assigned in all weeks through the Top 4. Brieanne and Suzanne have the most to gain from Crystal coming in second. In the Lee/Crystal/Casey scenario, Suz has the most points, followed by Brie; in the rather more improbable Casey/Crystal/Lee scenario, the reverse is the case. In all other scenarios, Mo Pie currently has the lead.
With that said, all of these are close matches, and there are five more points to be assigned (three in the coming week, and two in the finale). There are still very plausible scenarios in which other people could win this. Just how they might is left as an exercise for the reader.
(Note: while I think I got this right, I will not rule out the possibility that I miscounted something along the way. You might wanna check the spreadsheet and do the math yourself.)
Posted by Shmuel at May 13, 2010 7:31 AM