Shmuel's Soapbox: American Idol Annex

The Fifth Annual Idol Annex Pool!

Welcome to the fifth annual Shmuel's Soapbox American Idol Annex pool! Come one, come all! Tell your friends!

(Edited to make a change I meant to make, but forgot... the prize has traditionally been a mix CD. I'm having second thoughts about that, partly because it traditionally takes me forever to get around to it, but mostly because who uses CDs anymore? I'm open to suggestions for something else...)

Anyway. The rules are the same as last year's—in fact, I'm cutting and pasting wholesale—and they go as follows:

1. Every week, players predict the ultimate placement of all the remaining contestants. Players are encouraged to post their predictions in comments to this journal, but may also send them to me via e-mail.
2. One point will be awarded for every placement that turns out to be correct. No credit will be awarded for near-misses.
3. Entries should be submitted no later than the start of the results show on its earliest (East Coast) airing. If you're somebody I know and trust, later entries will be accepted; just make sure you make your choices before you hear anything about the results.
4. Entries for a given week can be submitted any time after the preceding week's results are announced. But you'll probably be best off waiting until after that week's performances.
5. In the event that you make a prediction one week, but don't get around to doing so in the next, the previous week's guesses will carry over, minus whoever got voted out. They will not carry over for a week beyond that unless I hear from you.
6. Whoever has the most points at the end of the season is the winner.
7. The winner gets a prize (traditionally a mix CD, but I'm having second thoughts) and bragging rights. In the event that I win, I get the bragging rights, and the first runner-up gets the prize.
8. In the event of a tie, both first-place finishers will get a prize. In the event that I take first place and there's a tie for second place, anybody who comes in second will get a prize. There will be no tiebreaker.
9. Disqualifications of contestants will be dealt with on a case-by-case basis, at my sole discretion. (This is the "Corey Clark" clause.)
10. Please note that Idol Gives Back is the week of the Top 8. I do not yet know how that will affect the elimination procedures, or this pool. I wish I knew more. Just be forewarned of potential weirdness there. (Last year, votes were rolled over to the following week, and the bottom two were then eliminated at once; I awarded a half-point for a prediction that a given person would be voted off in either of the two relevant weeks. What I decide this year will probably depend on what we find out before the episode in question.)

The upshot is that, every week, you're making x predictions, where x=the number of contestants remaining. For example, suppose that this week you were to rank the contestants as follows:

1. Amanda
2. Brooke
3. Carly
4. Chikezie
5. David A.
6. David C.
7. David H.
8. Jason
9. Kristy
10. Michael
11. Ramiele
12. Syesha

Putting aside the fact that there are better ways of making your predictions than going by alphabetical order, this would mean that if Syesha were to leave the show this week, thus coming in at #12 overall, you would get a point for having predicted that. Similarly, if Ramiele were to leave the show next week, thus coming in at #11 overall, you would get a point for that. This would similarly apply to the remaining 10 predictions, up to getting a point if Amanda turned out to be the American Idol at the end of the season.

Next week, you'd get to do the same thing again, that time ranking the eleven remaining contestants to make eleven bets. And so on until the final week, with the final two predictions. This allows for a mixture of short-term and long-term planning: you can pick up points either way, and you can have a lot of points riding on the results of the final few weeks. In fact, 22 points could be at stake between the Idol and the first runner-up, with 11 weeks of predictions riding on each.

The winners of the first two pools did so in entirely different ways. Heather (2004) picked up a few points here and a few points there, hedging her bets so that just about any outcome toward the end would guarantee her a decent placement. Pam (2005) chose Carrie as the winner in the first week, and stuck with it all season long, leading to a massive payoff when she turned out to be right. (Had Bo won instead, she would have come in dead last. A similar gamble on LaToya led to my downfall the year before.) I take this as a sign that the rules work; I wanted that kind of flexibility, rather than boxing competitors in to one strategy.

In 2006, I won by a razor-thin margin, getting the bragging rights. I still owe Pam and TeKay their mix CDs for coming in second, but I've been working on them this past weekend, and expect to get those puppies in the mail by next week. In 2007, I pretty much banked on a Jordin/Blake 1-2 punch the whole way through, and won again, a few points ahead of Frito (who picked up most of his points on #2 Blake, #5/6 Chris R., #4 LaKisha) and Mo Pie (who had a more diversified portfolio than either of us).

Further examples can be found in the explanation of the rules from three years ago, and last year's spreadsheet may or may not help you get the hang of things.

Good luck!