Shmuel's Soapbox: American Idol Annex

Random Prediction-Type Stuff

This has no bearing on the pool, it's just me rambling. 'Cause that's what I do.

My long-term predictions have changed drastically in the past few weeks. At the start of the finals, I considered Bo and Carrie to be the strongest contenders, with Nadia not far behind. I'm now mostly convinced that Bo isn't going to make it, and Carrie's hanging by a thread.

My rationale for Bo, counterintuitively enough, is that he's too good, too experienced. As Simon said a couple of weeks ago, it doesn't seem as if he's really in the competition... and I think that's enough to do him in. American Idol is Amateur Hour meets the Big Time; an important part of Ryan's role on the show is to reinforce the former. We aren't looking for experienced, polished performers; we want to see an undiscovered talent who's still a bit rough around the edges gradually improve over the course of the weeks, stretch themself, reach for the brass ring, and ultimately make it big. Bo isn't offering that. Combine that with the beginnings of a downward trend, and he's most likely to be the first surprise upset of the season.

Carrie's a more interesting question. I think she can still make it, but consistency has been her weak point thus far. It just takes one bad performance to lose this thing, and I'm starting to bet she's going to falter along the way. But I may be wrong.

Meanwhile, Constantine and Vonzell are now strong contenders. Constantine has been improving (and outdoing Bo), and, sorry Pam, but I think he's kinda hot. And Vonzell's had a couple of really strong performances. There are too many strong performers for me to have any idea who's going to win this thing, but I'm not willing to count either of them out.

As for the continued Clayification of Anthony, I have no idea whether this'll help him or hurt him more. But I'm betting he survives this week.