March 12, 2005

Let the Pool Begin!

So... on to the second annual Shmuel's Soapbox Idol Annex Pool. The rules are the same as last year's, as those seemed to work pretty well, providing a balance between short-term and long-term predicting.

The Rules:

  1. Every week, players predict the ultimate placement of all the remaining contestants. Players are encouraged to post their predictions in comments to this journal, but may also send them to me via e-mail.
  2. One point will be awarded for every placement that turns out to be correct. No credit will be awarded for near-misses.
  3. Entries should be submitted no later than 8 PM Eastern Time (5 PM Pacific Time) on Wednesday of the week in question. If you're somebody I know and trust, later entries will be accepted; just make sure you make your choices before you hear anything about the results.
  4. Entries for a given week can be submitted any time after the preceding week's results are announced. But you'll probably be best off waiting until after that week's performances.
  5. In the event that you make a prediction one week, but don't get around to doing so in the next, the previous week's guesses will carry over, minus whoever got voted out. They will not carry over for a week beyond that unless I hear from you.
  6. Whoever has the most points at the end of the season is the winner.
  7. The winner gets a mix CD and bragging rights. In the event that I win, I get the bragging rights, and the first runner-up gets the mix CD.
  8. I'm re-evaluating the tie-breaking procedure. With any luck, it won't be necessary; either way, there'll be a post on this down the line.
  9. Disqualifications of contestants will be dealt with on a case-by-case basis, at my sole discretion. (This is the "Corey Clark" clause.)
Examples:
Last season, the final five contestants were ranked as follows:
  1. Fantasia
  2. Diana
  3. Jasmine
  4. LaToya
  5. George
With five weeks to go, my predictions were as follows:
  1. LaToya
  2. George
  3. Fantasia
  4. Diana
  5. Jasmine
At the end of the season, all five of those guesses turned out to be wrong. No points for me.

With four weeks to go, my predictions were:

  1. Diana
  2. Fantasia
  3. Jasmine
  4. LaToya
My predictions for Jasmine and LaToya turned out to be right that week. Two points!

With three weeks to go, I predicted:

  1. Diana
  2. Fantasia
  3. Jasmine
Well, I was right about Jasmine. One point.

In the final week, I predicted:

  1. Diana
  2. Fantasia
Nuh-uh.

My final score for those five weeks: three points, out of a possible fourteen.

For a better record, here are the predictions made by last year's winner, Heather, over the same weeks:

Top Five:

  1. Fantasia
  2. Jasmine
  3. Diana
  4. LaToya
  5. George
Heather was right about Fantasia, LaToya, and George that week. Three points.

Top Four:

  1. Diana
  2. Fantasia
  3. LaToya
  4. Jasmine
No points that week.

Top Three:

  1. Fantasia
  2. Diana
  3. Jasmine
Clean sweep. Three points.

Top Two:

  1. Diana
  2. Fantasia
Nope.

Heather's final score for those five weeks: Six points.

Note that one aspect of this system is that, over the course of several weeks, you can put all your metaphorical chips on a given performer coming in at a given position, or hedge your bets. In the above example, Heather got some points for placing Fantasia and Diana first and second, respectively, and also would have gotten some points if the two had been reversed. On the other hand, I would have cleaned up had Diana come in first and Fantasia come in second, but lost my shirt when the reverse happened.

This is a simplified example; feel free to check the archives if you want to follow the full pool from last season, and feel free to ask if you have any questions.

The pool starts this week. Tell your friends! And good luck!

Posted by Shmuel at March 12, 2005 9:09 PM