Pool Rules

Thus far, an entire one person has indicated any interest in joining an American Idol pool if I were to start one, but that's good enough for me.

In trying to devise a structure for this, I wanted a system that would encompass both short-term and long-term predictions, a system that would enable one to put more or less weight on some calls, and a system in which the math would be as simple as possible. What follows is my best compromise between all those goals:

The Rules:

  1. Every week, players predict the ultimate placement of all the remaining contestants.
  2. One point will be awarded for every placement that turns out to be correct. No credit will be awarded for near-misses.
  3. Entries must be submitted no later than 8 PM Eastern Time (5 PM Pacific Time) on Wednesday of the week in question. This will remain the deadline no matter what time Fox moves the results show to, provided that it doesn't air before 8 PM ET on Wednesday. (That seems a safe bet.)
  4. Whoever has the most points at the end of the season is the winner.
  5. In the event of a tie, whoever has the earliest entry in which the entire roster is predicted correctly will be declared the winner.
  6. Disqualifications of contestants will be dealt with on a case-by-case basis, at Shmuel's discretion. (This is the "Corey Clark" clause.)

Explanatory Example:

Supposing that we were doing this last year, and starting in the week with the Top 5. Our intrepid player makes the following predictions:

1. Clay
2. Ruben
3. Kimberley
4. Trenyce
5. Josh

Trenyce loses that week, scoring no points. The following week, feeling uncertain about her top picks, but certain that Josh is finally gonna go, our contestant goes with:

1. Ruben
2. Kimberley
3. Clay
4. Josh

Josh bites the dust that week. Score one for our hypothetical player. Biting her lip thoughtfully, she decides that, no, K-Lo is on her way out this week.

1. Ruben
2. Clay
3. Kimberley

Kimberley is, indeed, voted off. Our player receives two points, one for each prediction that had Kim in the #3 spot. For the final week, she decides to put Clay back on top.

1. Clay
2. Ruben

Ruben comes in first; Clay comes in second. Our player gets two points for the two weeks in which she predicted Ruben would come in first, and one point for the one week in which she placed Clay in second. Grand total: six points.

Note that, under this system, if you feel certain that, say, Scooter Girl will come in first, you can place her there every week. If you did so for ten weeks, and she won, you'd get ten points. If, on the other hand, you had her and Briana neck and neck, you might gamble on one of them, or you might choose to alternate between them each week, giving you five points if either of them won.

(Edited on March 24th to add that another explanation of this example, possibly a clearer one, can be found in this later entry.)

Added Incentive:

Whoever wins will get the Adulation of All™, plus a mix CD from Shmuel. In the event that Shmuel wins, he will get the Adulation of All™, while the first runner-up will get a mix CD from Shmuel.

Final Notes:

I spent some time considering whether to also add predictions of each week's bottom three (or, technically, the two just above the bottom one), but decided that it might make the system too complicated. If you think it oughta be included anyway, let me know.

So, that's what I'm thinking. Any takers? Any other thoughts?

About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by Shmuel published on March 20, 2004 8:57 PM.

Top 12: Performances and Results was the previous entry in this blog.

A bit more on the Top 12 is the next entry in this blog.

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